Thoughts on WWDC 2014

Depending on how techie you are, Apple's WWDC announcements last week left you with one of these impressions:

  • “No new iPhone?! LAME.”
  • “PATHETIC. Android has had all of that for years!”
  • "HOLY. SHIT. MINDBLOWN."

If you're in the first group, you're most likely a consumer and not a developer. We have to remember, WWDC — short for World Wide Developer Conference — is a developer conference. For developers. Not consumers.

If you're in the second group, I got news for you: everyone copies. That's how technology moves forward. The best ideas are copied, remixed, refined, and evolve. As long as consumers win, why do we still need to argue about this?

If you're in the last group, you are either an iOS developer or an Apple enthusiast, and have a solid understanding/appreciation of how Apple does things.

As a developer and user experience designer, my job entails identifying specific user problems, researching/testing the right solutions, and delivering them to the right people at the right time. My passion lies in finding what makes new technology meaningful to real people, not just early adopting techies like me.

With that said, I'll try to break down all the developer stuff into real world examples for you.

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Tech I Couldn't Live Without in 2013

As part of my annual tradition, here is a list of my favorite apps, services, and tech products that I used throughout 2013.

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The iWallet is Coming →

Tristan Louis, Forbes:

Every step of the way, the company focused on reducing friction and providing increased value for the user when its competitors asked the users to do more work. The net result is that users have voluntarily provided all the components Apple now needs to enable a payment revolution. And we’re about to witness the rise of the iWallet, maybe not this year but pretty soon.

While all the doubters are busy proclaiming "Apple is doomed without Steve Jobs" and "Apple doesn't innovate," Apple's been quietly laying the foundation for a major mobile payments revolution.

Quick Thoughts on Touch ID

It might not seem like it now but the Touch ID fingerprint scanner has potential to be a real game-changer (assuming it works reliably, unlike Siri). We live in a world of multiple devices, countless apps & social networks...remembering all those logins and passwords is a huge pain in the ass.

I'm reminded of this every time my parents have to call me from the Philippines because A) they forgot their password or got locked out of their accounts for too many failed login attempts.

Identity & Authentication are two things that are due for innovation, and Apple just made the first step towards improving that for mainstream consumers. It might not be a feature that'll make your jaw drop or impress you, but it'll be something you won't be able to live without once you've had it.

My iPhone 2013 Predictions

The last time I shared my predictions before an Apple event, it was mostly wildcard predictions that were dead wrong, LOL. Just for kicks, here are my Apple predictions for tomorrow (September 10th).

Lower-Cost iPhone 5C - 99% Confidence

Apple has its eyes on the China market. Although Apple is a premium brand that charges a premium on all their products…China's budget-conscious market is far too important to ignore. The 5C will be plastic, come in probably 5 colors, and for the most part be what the iPhone 5 is today.

Note: This will be lower-cost but not low-cost. I say it'll start at $50 with a two-year contract.

Goodbye iPhone 5 - 50%

This is the hardest to predict. If they keep it, should the 5C be priced higher or lower than the 5? What features would separate the 5 from the 5C? Your guess is as good as mine.

Goodbye iPhone 4S - 75%

Based on the blogosphere, it's a toss-up on whether the 4S, the 5, or both will be discontinued. I think Apple needs to get everyone on the new Lightning plug and the 4-inch Retina screen as soon as possible.

Next-Gen iPhone with Fingerprint Scanner - 99%

If this works reliably (unlike Siri), this has potential to be a real game-changer. 100% chance Apple will keep it simple for the first year and use it strictly for unlocking the lock screen. 60% chance it will be used for iCloud stuff this year.

Within two years, 60% chance Apple will get into mobile payments.

(Limited) Offline Siri Access - 85%

In iOS 7, Siri can be used to do simple settings like "disable WiFi" and "turn on Bluetooth". Simple Siri commands like that really shouldn't require an internet connection.

Wishlist: Siri should learn your most common commands (for me, that'd be "call Mom") and execute them instantly, without an internet connection.

32, 64, 128GB Models - 70%

16GB gives a terrible user experience these days, especially because popular apps like Instagram and Vine quickly eat up space. It's time to double the memory.

Gold iPhone - 90%

Not gold gold but champagne gold. Apparently gold is the best-selling aftermarket casing for iPhones, globally. It'll probably sell well internationally.

Graphite iPhone - 70%

Some recent leaks show a new graphite-gray casing for the new iPhone.

"iPhone 6" instead "5S" - 40%

Apple needs to drop the "S" moniker because it implies the new iPhone is only a "half-upgrade." Otherwise, Samsung will continue to (effectively) use their ridiculous advertising budget to tarnish the iPhone brand.

iPhone Launch Day on Sept 20th - 98%

AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Apple all blocking out vacation days for employees the weekend of the 20th. Can't read the tea leaves any clearer than that.

Also, Apple typically launches the new iPhone ten days after the unveiling.

iPhone Game Controllers - 99%

Games for the iPhone will support a new standardized game controller. Tie this in with AirPlay + Apple TV, and you got yourself a mini game console for the living room.

Apple TV software update - 60%

The rumor mill is buzzing that something is coming to the Apple TV but no one is sure what. Whatever it is, if it's not unveiled tomorrow, it'll be unveiled next month.

Larger Screen iPhone - 0% this year (but 60% next year)

A few new behind-the-scenes things in iOS 7 totally convince me that larger iPhone is in the cards. Apparently large-screen phones sell really, really well overseas.

iWatch - 0% this year (but 90% next year)

So many tea leaves to read:

  1. Apple has been stockpiling on medical sensing technology for a reason. 2) Apple hired the fitness guru behind the Nike FuelBand. 3) Tim Cook has publicly said "I think the wrist is interesting" while sporting a Nike FuelBand. (Tim Cook is also on the board of directors at Nike.)

That's all for now. We'll see what happens tomorrow!

"Would you rather buy this Apple tablet with lots of apps, or save $100 or so and get this black plastic thing with far fewer apps?" →

Benedict Evans:

That's a perfectly legitimate question to ask, and Christmas was one big A-B test as to what tablet proposition people actually want. However, what does it tell you if someone says 'I want to save $100 and get the cheap-looking one with no apps'? Are they a good target for any publisher or developer? This is at the root of the staggeringly low engagement on Android tablets that all publishers report - under 5% of what they see on the iPad: self-selection by the users. People who buy cheap tablets are effectively declaring that they value the saving over the apps.

There will always be some piece of the market for consumers that have very little expectations and needs from a device. But for everyone else, there is so much more to consider.

The question should never be limited to "which smartphone/tablet/computer has the best specs and price right now?" The real question is:

Which platform/ecosystem has the best future to invest in?